The Army-Navy football game, one of the most revered traditions in college sports, will once again capture the hearts of fans this weekend. More than just a rivalry game, it’s a celebration of American history, military tradition, and fierce competition between two of the nation’s service academies. But this year, the 2024 Army-Navy showdown carries a unique level of intrigue, not just because of the fierce rivalry, but because of the explosive performances from both teams this season.
Historically, the Army-Navy game has followed a well-worn path when it comes to betting trends. The game has often been a go-to choice for bettors who lean toward the “under,” especially with both teams relying on option offenses that focus on time-consuming running plays. This style of offense typically leads to lower-scoring affairs, with defenses playing an especially key role. As a result, the game hit the “under” for an impressive 16 consecutive years from 2006 to 2021.
However, things have changed in 2024. Both Army and Navy are having standout seasons, making this year’s edition of the game much more unpredictable and potentially higher-scoring than in years past. Army, currently ranked No. 22, has dominated its opponents with a dynamic offense that averages 32.92 points per game—the team’s best offensive performance since 1985. Navy has also impressed, averaging 32.27 points per game, marking its best offensive output since 2019. The Midshipmen’s high-scoring attack has turned heads this season, and sports bettors are taking notice.
As a result, the betting lines for this year’s game are offering a total of 41.5 points, the highest since 2017. This is a significant shift from the ultra-low totals seen in recent years, including 2023 when the total closed at just 28.5 points, the lowest in the history of the rivalry. The change in the betting total reflects the belief that this year’s game could be different—fueled by the offensive explosiveness of both teams.
Johnny Avello, sportsbook director at DraftKings, acknowledges that the recent success of both teams will likely attract more betting action this year. “Army joins the AAC, they win it, they beat Tulane in the conference championship,” he said. “Navy finished third in the conference. It could have been Army-Navy playing in the final, then this game, then another bowl game. I mean, it would’ve been nuts.” This level of success for both teams has led sportsbooks to revise the game’s betting outlook significantly, with some analysts speculating that it could even exceed past expectations, both in terms of fan interest and scoring.
Betting on the “under” has long been a staple of Army-Navy wagers, due to the teams’ historical reliance on the option offense. But with Army’s potent offense and Navy’s resurgence, many sports analysts and bettors are reconsidering their approach. “If you want to play tradition, yeah, go ahead and bet the under,” said Avello. “But if you want to play based on what we’ve seen this year, maybe the under is not so much the play.”
The shift in offensive performance from both teams has also led sportsbooks to adjust the point spread. Army opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and after their impressive conference championship win, that line surged to -4.5, eventually pushing as high as -7. However, sharp action from bettors has since adjusted the line back to -6.5, reflecting a more balanced view of both teams’ abilities.
Not only has Army commanded significant support in the betting market, but their strong season has placed them under the spotlight in ways they haven’t experienced in recent years. From the beginning of the season until early November, Army had garnered 9% of all wagers at ESPN BET, more than any other team during that span. The Black Knights’ impressive 11-1 record and conference championship victory have only heightened expectations for the game.
Navy, on the other hand, has been an underdog in many of its matchups but remains a force to be reckoned with. The Midshipmen are 1-2 against the spread as underdogs this season, with a single outright win in that role. Despite their underdog status, Navy’s offense has shown it can compete with top-tier programs.
The 2024 Army-Navy game is shaping up to be one of the most compelling and unpredictable matchups in recent years. With both teams playing at a high level, bettors will need to consider not only the historical trends but also the unique dynamics of this season’s teams. While the “under” may have been the safe bet in past years, 2024 could be a year when the scoreboard tells a different story—one that challenges the traditional wisdom and offers an exciting, high-stakes contest for fans and bettors alike.
This year’s game promises more than just a rivalry. It’s a clash of top-tier football teams, one with the potential to defy expectations, raise the stakes, and offer a thrilling conclusion to the college football season. Whether you’re a die-hard fan or a casual bettor, the 2024 Army-Navy game is sure to deliver a memorable experience.
